I just got done posting my first news update for the Xpera Group website. The title: The Next Wave of Condominiums and Other Updates. The article contains a number of updates which I’d like to highlight here.
The Next Wave of Condominiums
Our resident Economist, Market Research Analyst and Forensic Expert, Alan Nevin wrote an outstanding article on multifamily housing in California. He notes that there is typically a five to eight year delay between when a condo project is constructed and when litigation is likely to occur.
Of the 57 condo projects built in San Diego from 2000 to 2007, 41 ended up in litigation and of those, Xpera was retained for expert services on 32. After 2007, new condos and conversions stopped almost completely. According to Nevin:
My take is that new condominium development and conversions in California most probably will gradually ramp up during the next several years, but most activity will be in the Bay Area and western Los Angeles. I do not anticipate that condominium activity will reach the levels of the past decade. In fact, I project that the levels in the 2010-2020 period will be less than 50% of what we saw in the last round.
From Litigating the Boom to Litigating the Bust
Xpera Group founder and president Ted Bumgardner wrote an article that picks up where Nevin’s article leaves off:
Back in 2011, we discovered an interesting correlation between residential permits issued in California and defects lawsuits filed six years later. Between 1995 and 2006, we saw the number of residential building permits issued in California double in volume. According to Westlaw, the number of construction defect cases filed in California doubled from 2000 to 2011, similar to the growth that occurred in residential construction, just shifted five years.
He notes that in 2005, towards the end of the residential building boom in California, 155,000 permits were issued. That number dropped 86% by 2011 to just 22,000 housing permits. However, there was only a 26% drop in construction defect lawsuits filed from 2012 to 2013.
Why is that? According to Bumgardner, “we have now moved from litigating the boom to litigating the bust. Over the next few years, several factors will affect the number of homes ultimately ending up in defects litigation.”
Source: Xpera Group News